Our 2 major political parties are engaged in a fierce struggle over the future shape of American society. Democrats want to preserve the legacy of the New Deal and the Great Society — Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid — and add to them what every other advanced country has: a more or less universal guarantee of essential health care. Republicans want to roll all of that back, making room for drastically lower taxes on the wealthy.
The fight over the fiscal cliff was just one battle in that war. It ended, arguably, in a tactical victory for Democrats; mainly because of what didn’t happen: There were no benefit cuts.. The question is whether it was a Pyrrhic victory that set the stage for a larger defeat. Progressives, always worried that President Obama seems much too willing to compromise about fundamentals, breathed a sigh of relief.
There were also some actual positives from a progressive point of view. Expanded unemployment benefits were given another year to run, a huge benefit to many families and a significant boost to our economic prospects (because this is money that will be spent, and hence help preserve jobs). Other benefits to lower-income families were given another five years — although, unfortunately, the payroll tax break was allowed to expire, which will hurt both working families and job creation.
So why are many progressives — myself included — feeling very apprehensive? Because we’re worried about the confrontations to come. According to the normal rules of politics, Republicans should have very little bargaining power at this point. But the G.O.P. retains the power to destroy, in particular by refusing to raise the debt limit — which could cause a financial crisis. And Republicans have made it clear that they plan to use their destructive power to extract major policy concessions.
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